Football Fixed Matches Over/Under
FREE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS 05.03.2024
Match: Al-Hilal (Sau) – Al-Ittihad FC (Sau)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.70 FT: 2:0 WON
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Opportunity cost is a useful concept for deciding the best way to maximize football fixed matches Over/Under return on investment from funds. Even profitable bettors should be aware of the potential costs of misallocating resources. Read on to find out more about applying opportunity cost to sports betting.
What is opportunity cost?
Imagine a high school student assessing the merits of attending University. What are the costs of studying the prospective student needs to consider? The initial cost of tuition is the obvious expense but it is not the only one the student must factor in.
In addition to the costs the prospective student incurs during their study. They must also consider the wages and experience they would have gained by working during this time instead. This is the opportunity cost to the student of higher education. Which needs to be weigh against the potential benefits of a university degree.
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This is an important concept in investing. An individual who saves their money in a 1% interest savings account is technically a “profitable” investor given that. And they will have more money at the end of the year than they had at the start.
However, if inflation is at 3% then, in real terms, the investor has lost purchasing power. As the growth in the price of goods has been greater than the savers return on investment (ROI). They would have been better off purchasing their desire goods at the start of the year rather than saving.
Applying opportunity cost to sports betting
How does this concept affect sports bettors? To look at this we will follow four imaginary bettors, all of whom are profitable. In order to simplify this process several (unrealistic) assumptions have been make:
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The bettors have limited initial capital (€100).
They are restrict to one action (no diversification of risk).
They must stake the full amount on each bet (in a real scenario a staking method would be advisable).
Average ROI per bet: Bettor A : 01%, Bettor B: 1%, Bettor C: 2%, Bettor D: 4%
The return on investment indicates each bettor’s level of skill. Bettor A is marginally profitable whilst Bettor D achieves a high return on investment.
Opportunity cost in betting: Outrights vs singles
A common debate amongst bettors is whether tying up funds in long-term outright bets a good strategy or a misallocation of resources. This is essentially a debate about opportunity cost.
Assuming these skilled bettors have an edge on both outright and football fixed matches Over/Under. What expect return on investment would be require to make a bet on a year-long bet on an outright market the optimal choice?
At a 100% expect return on investment. Football fixed matches Over/Under is better off by €89. But even with such a big ROI, the other three bettors will lose out staking on the outright compare to allocating their initial funds to fixed games 1×2 today betting on the 100 singles.
For bettor D to eliminate the opportunity cost of betting on singles with that €100 over the course of the year (whilst the funds otherwise would be tie up in the outright stake). And make a significant profit they would need to stake on an outright bet with an expect return of investment of 5150%.
The higher skill bettors must find an outright offering incredible value to overcome the compounding effect of staking that money on single bets sure odds winning matches.
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Whilst this may offer an argument against staking on outrights. In this simulation our bettors have limit resources and do not need to account for variance. Real bettors could see outright betting as a good way to diversify risk. Certainly, not many bettors would turn down a bet with a 100% expect return on investment.
Football fixed matches Over/Under vs the stock market
Hedge fund managers are assesse by how their returns compare to the general stock market. In simple terms, a hedge fund manager’s skill level is determin by how much their “expertly” select portfolio can beat that of someone who simply purchases every major stock via an index fund.
Warren Buffett calculates stocks grow an average of 6 to 7% annually, so we will use the higher bound 7% growth rate as our average. How do our bettors fare when judge in the same way as hedge fund managers?
At average market growth all of the bettors return better than market profits, so there is no opportunity cost present. However, in a fast-rising market Bettor A makes a slight loss (opportunity cost of €3) whilst the other bettor’s real profits are significantly reduce.
In a falling market it would be possible for even a football fixed matches Over/Under to beat stock market returns, whilst the profitable bettors see a strong performance vs traditional stock investment.
Long-run, all the bettors will be better off wagering on sports instead of investing but. In a one-off scenario, bettor A could incur an opportunity cost during a fast-rising market.
